Break-Even Win Rate Calculator
Find the win rate your strategy needs to break even, given your average win, loss and fees.
Calculation Results
For education only. Not financial advice. Trading involves substantial risk of loss.
Every strategy has a win rate below which it loses money. Enter your average loss, average win and fees per trade to find that break-even point, then compare it with your actual win rate to see your expectancy.
The formulas
- Break-even win rate = (Average loss + Fees) ÷ (Average loss + Average win)
- Expectancy = (Win rate × (Average win − Fees)) − ((1 − Win rate) × (Average loss + Fees))
Fees are paid on every trade, whether it wins or loses. They add to the cost of a loss and reduce the size of a win.
Worked example
Average loss $100, average win $200, no fees:
Break-even win rate = 100 ÷ 300 = 33.3%.
Now add $5 in fees per trade:
Break-even win rate = 105 ÷ 300 = 35%.
At a 45% win rate with $5 fees, expectancy is (0.45 × 195) − (0.55 × 105) = 87.75 − 57.75 = +$30 per trade.
Break-even by risk/reward (no fees)
| Risk/reward | Break-even win rate |
|---|---|
| 1 : 1 | 50% |
| 1 : 1.5 | 40% |
| 1 : 2 | 33.3% |
| 1 : 3 | 25% |
| 1 : 4 | 20% |
What the numbers tell you
- Win rate above break-even means positive expectancy, provided the sample is large enough to trust.
- Below break-even means you need a better win rate, a bigger average win, a smaller average loss or lower costs.
- Fees matter most for frequent traders. Ten trades a day at $5 each adds up quickly.
Where to get your numbers
Use your trading journal for real averages over at least 30 trades. If you have no data yet, use backtest results and treat the output as an estimate.
FAQ
Can I be profitable with a win rate under 50%? Yes, if your average win is larger than your average loss. At 1:3 you only need 25% wins.
Does a high win rate guarantee profit? No. A 70% win rate loses money if the average loss is much bigger than the average win.
Should I use planned or actual risk/reward? Use actual averages from your trades. Slippage and early exits often make real results different from the plan.
Related tools: Risk/Reward Calculator · Trading Journal · Position Size Calculator · All trading tools
Educational use only. Not financial advice.
